Revolution in Energy: New Sources Surpass 50%, Oil Cars in Decline

As an industry experiencing explosive growth, it is quite unreasonable for concept stocks to continue to decline!

Just in, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) has released the domestic car market sales data for the first half of April 2024. From April 1st to 14th, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in China reached 260,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32%. The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger cars in the first half of April was 50.39%, surpassing that of traditional fuel-powered passenger cars for the first time. This is a full 11 years ahead of the previously planned target of over 50% new energy vehicle penetration by 2035. Today: The replacement of fuel by new energy is a foregone conclusion!

In 2020, China set a goal for new energy vehicle penetration to exceed 50% by 2035. Now, this goal has been achieved 11 years ahead of schedule. In 2021, it broke through 14%, in 2022 it broke through 27%, and in 2023 it broke through 35%. It is highly likely that the penetration rate will exceed 50% in 2023.

The entire new energy industry in China is in an explosive growth phase, with technology continuously iterating at a high speed, even causing the electric vehicle giant Tesla to lay off a large number of employees.

BYD has launched the slogan "Electricity is cheaper than oil." As early as the 2023 financial report investor communication meeting held by BYD, Wang Chuanfu revealed that the fifth-generation DMI's fuel consumption per 100 kilometers has been reduced to as low as 2.9 liters, with a maximum range breaking through 2000 km.

Wang Chuanfu also emphasized that the trend of new energy transformation is irreversible, and the speed and efficiency of new things changing in the Chinese market are faster than abroad.

Recently, Xiaomi, Huawei, Geely, and others have been fighting price wars and technology wars. Overall, Porsche has been forced to lower prices by Xiaomi. In addition to these, even the Great Wall Cannon has become popular worldwide. Under the strong manufacturing industry chain, Chinese automotive manufacturing technology has reached a world-class level.

"Zhou Hongyi sells cars" has recently topped the hot search list. The founder and chairman of 360 posted a video saying: He has made a difficult decision to sell his million-dollar luxury car, which has accompanied him for 9 years, and replace it with a domestically produced new energy intelligent connected car. Although it is a major trend for internet bigwigs to switch to new energy vehicles, it is also a significant shock. This also indicates that the rise of new energy vehicles is accelerating comprehensively.The oil car industry is facing a complete collapse. In the past two years, due to poor sales, Dongfeng Renault, Changan Suzuki, and GAC Mitsubishi have successively exited the Chinese market. According to statistics, in March 2024, Honda Accord's sales dropped by more than 70%, Toyota Camry's sales dropped by nearly 60%, Corolla's sales dropped by more than 50%, and Volkswagen Lavida's sales dropped by 36.4%. Most joint venture brand cars have a utilization rate of less than 50%. Negative news such as layoffs, factory closures, and dealers running away is endless.

Even the electric car giant Tesla has also had a large-scale layoff, because Chinese car companies are rising too fiercely, and the price is also very advantageous. If Tesla does not make significant changes later, it is possible to be squeezed out of the Chinese market.

Now, oil cars have officially become a minority! What I am mainly worried about now is lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate, this future oil, why is it slow to rise. Although hybrid cars consume half the lithium compared to pure electric cars, such a high growth rate and such a large scale, the demand for lithium carbonate should also show explosive growth.

On April 19, 2024, the phosphorus chemical industry sector rose against the trend, Sichuan Jinuo, Hubei Yihua, and Sirte were all capped, and Qingshuiyuan, Xingfa Group, and Sichuan Longmeng were among the leaders in the rise. In terms of news, since April, the price of phosphate ore has remained high, the price of urea, fertilizer, and phosphate ammonium has narrowed, showing a stable trend.

In the absence of any movement in lithium carbonate, the concept of phosphate ore in lithium iron phosphate has shown movement. Will there be other factors stimulating? At present, no new news has been found, but looking at the movement, it is more or less affected by the continuous explosion of the new energy automotive industry. At present, the West can't keep up and wants to play tricks, but it indicates that new energy vehicles will enter the Chinese era like mobile phones. Therefore, in the medium and long term, as a high-growth track, I think it will be more prosperous than other industries. Let's look forward to it together! This is one of the few high-growth tracks in the world at present.

It is expected that by 2030, global sales will exceed 65 million vehicles. With an annual sales volume of more than 100 million vehicles, it is achievable for new energy vehicles to achieve a market share of 65% by 2030. If the sales weighted average price is calculated according to the current $36,000, the global annual sales volume will be $2.34 trillion (about 17 trillion yuan), which will be a super large market.

The market expects that more than 70% of the world's cars will be produced in China in the future. That is a vehicle market of nearly 12 trillion yuan, which will be 6.7 times the current market scale. China is one of the largest car markets in the world. If future intelligence drives, combined with electric passenger aircraft, humanoid robots, and other intelligent integrations, the entire industry value can exceed 100 trillion yuan. This is a broad and invincible market, and it will also indicate that this is a market with the most potential points of 10 times or even 100 times. Which other industry can compare?